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The Chaos Theory in effect; a disturbing glimpse of what is happening with American manufacturing

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Photo by Kateryna Babaieva

BY SIMONE J. SMITH

“We are seeing a pronounced slowdown in owners going forward with new projects. There is too much uncertainty in the economy and globally.” (Fabricated metal product manufacturing)

As a journalist, I have had the great privilege of being exposed to many different topics that ordinarily I would not pay attention to. What has truly stood out to me is the fact that the Chaos Theory is in fact a very real phenomenon. Let me explain.

One of the key concepts in the Chaos Theory is the butterfly effect, which suggests that the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil could set off a chain of events that leads to a tornado in Texas. This metaphorical idea illustrates how small changes in initial conditions can lead to significant differences in outcomes in complex systems.

Theory intersects reality when discussing the Chaos Theory; it deals with complex systems (humans) whose behavior is highly sensitive to initial conditions. It studies systems that appear to be disordered and random (life), but in fact, have underlying patterns and deterministic behavior. These systems (humans) are highly sensitive to small changes in their initial conditions, which can lead to drastically different outcomes over time.

Where am I going with this you ask; well Bloomberg released an article last week that discussed what is happening in parts of the United States manufacturing industry, and what I saw concerned me.

“Six months from now is actually quite scary. The economy is uncertain, and customers cannot predict with any certainty what they see. Political pressure and the wars are now forcing customers to reevaluate their business activities and reduce their outlook. It’s very uncertain.” (Machinery manufacturing)

Last week the Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey came out, and it provided a disturbing glimpse of what is happening with manufacturing. The Dallas Fed conducts the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey monthly to obtain a timely assessment of the state’s factory activity. Firms are asked whether: output, employment, orders, prices and other indicators: increased, decreased or remained unchanged over the previous month.

Unfortunately, what was reported back in the survey was not good at all. While regional manufacturing surveys have been in the gutter for a while, Joe Weisenthal (the Bloomberg reporter) stated, “I can’t remember a time when the commentary from survey respondents was this negative.”

I want you to stay with me here, because at the end it will all come together.  I decided to take a look back at what had been forecasted for manufacturing in the United States, just to see how well experts had made their predictions. I found a concise report put out by Deloitte titled “2023 Manufacturing Industry Outlook.” In this report it discussed how US manufacturing had demonstrated continued strength in 2022, building on the momentum it gained emerging from the pandemic. Looking ahead to 2023, Deloitte projections, based on Oxford Economics’ Global Economic Model, anticipated a 2.5% growth in GDP in manufacturing.

In the report they stated that while overall demand and production capacity had hit recent highs, there were indications that the near-term outlook may not be as bright. The industry at that time was experiencing concerns related to inflation and economic uncertainty.

In addition, manufacturers were grappling with talent challenges that limited the industry’s growth momentum. The industry was dealing with supply chain issues, including sourcing bottlenecks, global logistics backlogs, cost pressures, and cyberattacks. These disruptors had affected manufacturers’ optimism and business confidence, pulling the second-quarter Manufacturing Outlook Index to 55, down by 4.2 points since first-quarter 2022.

On a positive note, they did project that the acceleration gained in 2022 was expected to continue into 2023, though headwinds of supply challenges, labor shortages, and an uncertain economic environment would persist.

Energy price volatility, higher labor costs, and inflation worries could also affect the industry. In addition, the impact of legislation passed in 2022 would likely become more evident in 2023. Amid these uncertainties, innovations and solutions pioneered in 2022 were expected to gain momentum in 2023, potentially altering tried-and-true business practices in the pursuit of growth and productivity.

They conclude the report with some thoughts for companies to consider:

  • Increasing the utilization of digital technology to increase supply chain visibility, productivity, and connectivity with suppliers, partners, and consumers
  • Growing focus on attracting and retaining talent through upskilling; reskilling; providing flexibility where possible; and promoting diversity, equity, and inclusion in the workplace
  • Mitigating supply chain risk through building local capacity and moving from just-in-time sourcing to create redundancy in the supply chain
  • Implementing smart factory initiatives to achieve targeted business goals
  • Adapting strategies for the future of work

Well, it looks like many of these predictions were correct, and the responses from the survey showed that. Here’s a sampling of quotes from the Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey . Each one is from a regional manufacturer. The parenthetical indicates what industry the respondent comes from:

  • “Business has slowed down significantly; we see no signs of improvement in business activity.” (Machinery manufacturing)
  • “Oh, how we long for the days of a stable market. We just lost another long-time customer to China where the pricing for the finished product was what we pay for the raw material. With the inflation we have being imposed on us here in the U.S., we won’t ever see those customers come back.” (Machinery manufacturing)
  • “In a consumer business, we are hearing a lot more “I can’t afford this” than we ever have before.” (Miscellaneous manufacturing)
  • “Activity is definitely slowing down. We remain optimistic at this point for a turnaround, but cautiously.(Paper manufacturing)
  • “We anticipate that business conditions will remain constant, or decline over the next three to four months, based on the rate that we are receiving orders. Oil and gas orders have been weak all year, which is strange since oil prices have been high and are anticipated to continue to increase with the uncertainty in the world order.” (Primary metal manufacturing)
  • “We are currently forecasting a 20 percent drop in 2024 versus 2023 (previously planned for a 13 percent drop), so the market forecast has worsened month over month.” (Transportation equipment manufacturing)

Here is what we need to think about as Canadian’s; how badly is this going to affect us? How is the chaos across the border going to bring disruption to our lives?

We, as humans are guaranteed certain things in life: stressors, taxes, bills and death are the first thoughts that pop to mind. It is not uncommon that many people find a hard time dealing with these daily life stressors, and at times will find themselves losing control over their lives. Simone Jennifer Smith’s great passion is using the gifts that have been given to her, to help educate her clients on how to live meaningful lives. The Hear to Help Team consists of powerfully motivated individuals, who like Simone, see that there is a need in this world; a need for real connection. As the founder and Director of Hear 2 Help, Simone leads a team that goes out into the community day to day, servicing families with their educational, legal and mental health needs.Her dedication shows in her Toronto Caribbean newspaper articles, and in her role as a host on the TCN TV Network.

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Canada is Sinking – Is there a correlation between the rising economic costs, and the siphoning of funds to other sources in Canada?

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BY ADRIAN REECE

At some point Toronto was a city that people enjoyed living in. Recent political leadership at every level of government has caused citizens to consider moving out of the country as a whole. The high cost of living, coupled with the difficulty affording housing, and remote work becoming more regular has made the rest of the world seem much more appealing for Canadians as a whole.

Many countries are offering travel perks and visas to travelers in the west, to encourage them to visit, or to even move into their countries. Costa Rica, Japan, and France currently have travel perks and have opened their borders to make it easier to enter. Specifically for Canadians and even more specifically Torontonians who work remotely, are looking to countries and cities with lower costs of living. The Canadian dollar goes far in other parts of the world.

We owe the struggling economy to a few factors. Political leadership has greatly impacted the state of Canada, immigration policies that have changed over the years have caused stress on Canadian citizens.

In 2023, the federal government released its new Immigration Levels Plan to welcome 485,000 permanent residents in 2024 and 500,000 in 2025 and 2026. This announcement came on the heels of an Environics public opinion survey revealing a significant increase in the number of Canadians who believe the country accepts too many immigrants. That marks a dramatic reversal from a year ago, when support for immigration levels stood at an all-time high.

The Trudeau led government has held true to their commitment to bring in millions of immigrants in a short span of time. Housing policy is draining the income of Canadians, and political debates do not provide any real answers towards understanding what is going on in the country. Consistent political scandals regarding Trudeau overspending, and not adhering to budgets, and using money that was originally allocated for certain things. Trudeau was audited and it was found that $123 million was given to ineligible businesses, or projects that should have never been awarded at all. This is one in a long list of Trudeau scandals that have been a part of Canada political identity for the last nine years.

Trudeau’s government has even siphoned off funds to their personal businesses, after audits by the auditor general, we have seen too many inconsistencies with the funding of the Trudeau government in misusing funds as well as money disappearing into places that it should not be going.

In June of this year, the auditor general (AG) released two reports about: improper contracting practices, conflict of interest, and funding provided for ineligible projects. What these reports brought to light is an unpleasant reality; politicians and bureaucrats in Ottawa do not always act in the best interest of Canadians.

According to the first AG report, Sustainable Development Technology Canada (SDTC), the federal agency responsible for funding green technology projects, demonstrated “significant lapses… in governance and stewardship of public funds.” Nearly 20% of the SDTC projects examined by the AG were in fact ineligible (based on the government’s own rules) for funding, with a total price tag of $59 million. There were also 90 instances where the SDTC ignored conflict of interest provisions while awarding $76 million to various projects. Indeed, the AG found 63 cases where SDTC agency directors voted in favour of payments to companies in which they had declared interest.

The second AG report focused on 97 contracts totaling $209 million awarded by the federal government to the McKinsey & Company consulting firm from 2011 to 2023. According to the AG, the government demonstrated “frequent disregard for procurement policies and guidance and that contracting practices often did not demonstrate value for money.” About 70% of these contracts were awarded non-competitively, meaning no other companies were permitted to bid on the contracts. Interesting!

These findings also follow an earlier report in February that found the federal government “repeatedly failed to follow good management practices in the: contracting, development, and implementation” of the ArriveCAN mobile app, which cost Canadian taxpayers at least $59.5 million.

Is there a correlation between the rising economic costs, and the siphoning of funds to other sources in Canada? Potentially, it will take a lot more investigation to confirm if that is really the case. However, Canadians can see that there has been a drastic change in the economy since the Trudeau government has come into power.

For governments to work there needs to be transparency, and there has been a lack there of in regard to our political leadership in the last few years. There are too many scandals and too many mishaps with money. Too many policies that do not benefit the citizenry, and not enough effort made to rectify the sinking economy.

Canada cannot continue to stay in these dire straits, we are sinking, and leadership plays a big role in the state of the country. We won’t see changes unless we demand it, we can take a page out of France’s method of protest; other countries have set a precedent of what their expectations are, and Canadians need to do the same. They need to demand change and implement strategies to achieve it. Within acceptable methods of protest there exists a strategy and method of changing the nature of Canada’s problems, but it starts with the citizenry. Coming together is the greatest power we have, and we need to utilize it.

REFERENCES:

https://www.environicsinstitute.org/projects/project-details/public-opinion-about-immigration-refugees

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2023-2025.html

https://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/parl_oag_202402_01_e_44428.html

https://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/parl_oag_202406_06_e_44493.html

https://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/parl_oag_202406_e_44491.html

https://www.fraserinstitute.org/article/scathing-auditor-general-reports-underscore-political-realities

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The Jamaica Food and Drink Festival – where every bite tells a story, and every sip celebrates Jamaica’s vibrant soul

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BY SIMONE J. SMITH

What if I told you that Visa is offering two amazing opportunities that YOU, our loyal readers have an opportunity to take part in? For one of our lucky readers, you have a chance to:

  • Win a trip to Trinidad Carnival 2025
  • Win a trip to Jamaica

“What is this all about Simone,” you might be asking? Well, the Jamaica Food and Drink Festival (JFDF) turns 10 this year, and Visa International is thrilled to be part of the celebration once again. Welcome to the heart of Jamaica’s culinary playground – the Jamaica Food and Drink Festival, where flavours, culture, and music blend into one unforgettable celebration.

Step into the lively Craft Market downtown, where the spirit of Jamaica comes alive. Here, they celebrate the island’s rich history and vibrant flavours – an ode to the past. Guests get a chance to immerse themselves in the legacy of festival favourites like: Crisp, Chopstix, Pork Palooza, and Picante – all in one electrifying space.

Taste, sip, and groove your way through the night, reliving fond festival memories while savouring the global influences that have shaped the iconic dishes we love today – no passport required (except to travel of course)!

As the hot days turn into steamy nights, and steamy nights turn into sweltering days, what better way to close out the festivities than with one last delectable event? The finale is not just a celebration, but a reflection of Jamaica’s culinary renaissance. After four unforgettable days, guests get a chance to honour the island’s: finest chefs, mixologists, and artisans who have made this festival a true showcase of creativity and passion.

Naturally, the festival had to find accommodations that match its prestige, and the only hotels of choice this year are: The Jamaica Pegasus Hotel and The Courtleigh Hotel & Suites. At the Jamaica Pegasus Hotel, the Caribbean’s most distinguished address, you will experience the perfect blend of elegance and island charm. Nestled in the heart of New Kingston, surrounded by lush gardens and views of the Caribbean Sea, this 17-storey gem is where business meets leisure in true Jamaican style. You also have the option of immersing yourself in the timeless charm of The Courtleigh Hotel & Suites, a true jewel of Jamaica’s capital city. With spacious accommodations, award-winning dining, and all the modern comforts, it is the perfect way to end your festival experience.

Waldemar Cordero, Marketing Senior Director for Visa in the Caribbean and Central America, expressed his excitement about being involved in the festival’s decade-long run. “We’re really excited to be part of the 10th staging of the Jamaica Food and Drink Festival. It’s amazing to see how far this festival has come, and we’re proud to have been part of the journey over the last 6 years. This festival isn’t just about food, it’s about celebrating Jamaica’s rich culture and the incredible talent that drives it.”

Visa’s partnership with JFDF has grown over the years, evolving from a traditional sponsorship into a dynamic collaboration that enhances the festival experience for everyone. “Our relationship with the Jamaica Food and Drink Festival has deepened over time,” said Waldemar. “We’ve moved from simply being a sponsor to becoming the main partner, working closely with the organizers to bring fresh, exciting elements to the event each year. This time around, we’re especially excited about the initiatives we’re rolling out that will make it easier and more enjoyable for attendees to experience all that the festival has to offer.”

Visa is excited to enhance the celebration of the Jamaica Food and Drink Festival’s milestone 10th year by offering an exclusive hospitality package to Trinidad Carnival 2025. One lucky Visa cardholder who purchases festival tickets between October 16th and November 9th, 2024, will win this incredible experience. This offering includes: two economy class tickets from Kingston, Jamaica to Port of Spain, Trinidad; six nights of luxury accommodation at the Hyatt Regency; and comprehensive airport transfers and event transportation. The winner and their guest will enjoy: inclusive meals, stylish Monday Wear and Carnival Tuesday costumes, and access to premier events such as Brian Lara’s Event and PinkNicTT. Additionally, they will be treated to glamour make-up and photos. This package promises to deliver an unforgettable festival experience and celebrate the unified Caribbean culture in style.

In addition, one lucky winner from our Caribbean neighbour Trinidad and Tobago, who uses the First Citizens Bank card in Trinidad, will win a trip for two to the Food and Drink Festival in Jamaica. This is an all-expense paid trip for two with the winners to ensure the festival and enjoy scenic places in Jamaica such as Dunn’s River Falls and Port Royal. Ready for that almost winter getaway? Visit https://jafoodanddrink.com/ for more details. Good luck!

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Welcome to the Black Scholars Institute—where excellence thrives, and liberation is pursued

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BY SIMONE J. SMITH

At the heart of the University of Windsor’s campus, centrally located in the lower level of the CAW Student Centre, lies a space dedicated to fostering: African-Caribbean excellence, academic growth, and community empowerment: The Black Scholars Institute, or BSI.

The BSI Lounge is more than just a meeting place. It is a safe and welcoming space for African/-Caribbean faculty, staff, and students—a venue that fosters not only academic engagement, but community connection. Here, important university and local events, aligned with the Institute’s mission and values, take place.

The Black Scholars Institute is a multidisciplinary research institute—a home for African-Caribbean scholars at UWindsor. It is dedicated to advancing Black excellence and liberation through scholarship, research, and community engagement. The Institute’s work enriches teaching, learning, and social justice efforts across the University, with a focus on making an impact nationally and globally.

BSI hosts a range of weekly programs that encourage meaningful dialogue and academic collaboration. Events such as “Think Tank Thursday” provide a platform for African-Caribbean faculty and students to come together, exchange ideas, and discuss relevant research and current events. For those who are deep in their academic work, “Just Write” sessions offer dedicated time for focused writing in a supportive environment. “Coffee and Convo,” a collaboration with Leddy Library, creates space to explore Black literature and hold thought-provoking discussions around important topics.

Graduate students are invited to participate in student saloons, where they present their works-in-progress in a safe, inclusive space, where they can receive valuable feedback from peers and faculty members alike. Additionally, the “Black Research Spotlight” shines a light on the groundbreaking work of African Caribbean scholars, providing them with a platform to showcase their research and innovations.

In recognition of the challenges posed by systemic anti-Black racism, the BSI offers its members a membership with the National Center for Faculty Development and Diversity, providing on-demand access to a wealth of professional development resources. This is just one of the ways BSI ensures its scholars are well-equipped to thrive and succeed in their academic careers. As a research institute, BSI is committed to supporting Black Studies and promoting excellence in scholarships. One vital aspect of this is the awarding of grants to Black scholars. These grants are instrumental in advancing research that is often overlooked in traditional funding competitions.

While visiting the University earlier this month, I learned more about some of the challenges that have been faced in opening BSI. The establishment of this initiative was approved by the University of Windsor’s Senate on October 7th, 2022. The initiative is in alignment with the University’s commitment to the Scarborough Charter (utoronto.ca) on anti-Black racism and Black inclusion in Canadian higher education. In 2023, the University of Windsor (UWindsor) announced their new academic home that would spotlight: Black excellence, scholarship, research, and community. The inaugural Black Scholars Institute (BSI) at UWindsor, was formally launched in September 2024.

Dr. Clinton Beckford, UWindsor’s Vice President of Equity, Diversity, and Inclusion, envisions that the BSI will be the institutional home for Blackness at the University. “The establishment of a Black Scholars Institute at the University of Windsor is ground-breaking and transformative,” he says.  “It positions the University of Windsor as a post-secondary leader in intellectual thought and practice around Blackness and makes real our commitments to Black flourishing and thriving at and beyond the institution.”

The BSI will work closely with UWindsor’s Interdisciplinary and Critical Studies Department within the Faculty of Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences. Building a Black Scholars academic program represents an innovative plan of action intended to meaningfully understand UWindsor’s approach to African-Caribbean ways of knowing in Canadian universities. The expected output will enhance UWindsor’s research profile in Black Studies and feature scholarly work, special events, speakers’ series, mentorship, and more.

Dr. Camisha Sibblis, the Director at BSI, is hopeful that the institute will enrich the experiences of Black faculty at UWindsor. “We believe that the inclusion of Black peoples, ways of learning and knowledge systems are integral to the growth of our community. The establishment of the BSI is a crucial part of fulfilling the University’s Strategic Mandate Agreement (ontario.ca) and purposefully moving the institution into the future. The Institute will enhance the University’s research profile and will also establish the University as a center of excellence in Windsor-Essex and the Detroit area – a region known for its historic importance for Black people in North America.”

Welcome to the Black Scholars Institute—where excellence thrives, and liberation is pursued through scholarship, research, and community engagement.

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