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Mathematical modelling predicts COVID-19 scenarios

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BY PAUL JUNOR

As the COVID -19 pandemic continues to exert a global impact, many are concerned about its far-reaching effects. The: social effect, economic impact, political fallout, financial toll, psychological shock and spiritual consequences have turned the world upside down.

In order to make sense of what is happening, scientists, politicians, bureaucrats and analysts have resorted to mathematical modelling. It is defined as, “A process that uses math to represent, analyse, make predictions, or otherwise provide insight into real-world phenomena.” It has become an important predictive tool that is used to foresee the fallout from the COVID-19 crisis globally and nationally.

In elementary school, students are exposed to Patterning and Algebra as a unit in their Mathematics curriculum. This is intended to expose them to the importance of understanding mathematical relationships in terms of numerical, graphical and algebraic connections between variables (cause and effect).

In high school, students build on this foundation to study linear and non-linear relations from Grade 9-12. They learn about algebraic, graphical and numerical models in terms of linear, quadratic and exponential relations.

These models are simply representations of real-life situations and contexts. Models have applications in diverse disciplines, and can be used in natural sciences (biology, physics, chemistry) and social sciences (economics, psychology, sociology, political science).

In Ontario, the provincial government has used mathematical modelling to conceive worst-case and best-case scenarios from the COVID-19 outbreak. There are certain specific steps that must be followed. These include: defining a problem, making assumptions, identifying your variables, getting a solution, analysing, interpreting and reporting results (m3challenge.siam.org).

In an update titled, “COVID-19: Modelling and Potential Scenarios Ontario’s Action Plan” released on April 3rd, 2020 by Public Health Ontario, it was predicted that up to 100,000 Ontarians could likely have died over the pandemic period if the province had not followed stringent public health protocols. With no intervention there could be up to 6,000 deaths and 300,000 cases. With extreme prevention, there would have been 200 deaths and 12,500 cases. Under current intervention, there could be 1,600 deaths and 80,000 cases.

Two weeks later in an update from the Ontario government on Monday, April 20th, 2020, new modelling indicated that there would be less than 20,000 COVID-19 cases during the first wave of the pandemic. There will be far less than the 80,000 that was originally predicted, with a peak occurring earlier than what was expected in May.

On Monday, April 20th, Premier Doug Ford made a statement, “Today, we saw new modelling that shows there’s some light at the end of the tunnel. The numbers clearly show that the steps we have taken as a province are working because of you.”

The modelling update revealed that:

  • Community transmission of the virus has levelled off
  • Outbreaks in long-term care homes and aggregate settings are increasing
  • More must be done to help those most susceptible
  • Ontario is on a path of best-case scenario rather than worst-case scenario.

According to Doug Ford, “The modelling clearly demonstrates that we are making progress in our fight against this deadly virus. That’s due to the actions of all Ontarians, those who are staying home and practicing physical distancing and the heroic efforts of our frontline health care workers.”

The closure of schools, non-essential business and banning of all public gatherings is in effect until May 12th, 2020, and it is expected that the curve will be flattened by then. As the Ontario government continues to update the numbers, there is much hope and expectation that it will be far less than it is predicted. In the mean time, we can all collectively do our part to help reduce the chance and possibility of being affected and infected by this deadly and contagious virus by praising social and physical distancing.

Reference Link

m3challenge.siam.org

With a last name that means “Faithful and loyal,” it is no wonder that Paul Junor has become a welcomed addition to the Toronto Caribbean Newspaper Team. Since 1992, Paul has dedicated his life to become what you call a great teacher. Throughout the years, he has formed strong relationships with his students and continues to show them that he cares about them as people. Paul is a warm, accessible, enthusiastic and caring individual who not only makes himself available for his students, but for his community as well.

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Youth Development

Understanding the multiple layers involved in navigating education spaces Parents of Black Children launch Navigating the Education System

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BY PAUL JUNOR

The work of the advocacy group Parents of Black Children (PoBC) has made a significant and revolutionary difference by bringing issues to the forefront that help Black families at all levels.

For over two years now, it has organized events, workshops and initiatives that have provided important information to the Black community to bring empowerment, knowledge and deep understanding of the multiple layers of the complex dynamics involved in navigating education spaces.

There are five core principles that underlie PoBC understanding of racism:

  1. Racialization
  2. Racism is about power
  3. Critical racial theory
  4. Our stories matter
  5. Racism is founded on White supremacy

On Tuesday, November 23rd, 2021, they launched the document Navigating the Education System,” which was a very empowering, enriching and inspiring tool for diverse Black families. Kearie Daniels, one of the cofounders of PoBC and author of the document, moderated the launch. Furthermore, Claudette Rutherford, one of the cofounders of PoBC and author gave an extensive presentation of the details of the document, sharing useful insights, practical knowledge and interesting information.

PoBC shared a pdf document subsequent to the launch, which provided additional details in a fifty-three-page package. It contained relevant, contextual and vital resources. PoBC’s Advocacy Team supported the document, which includes Charline Grant and Xavier McLaughin.

In the introduction to the document the mission of PoBC is to “Provide support to parents of Black children across Canada and the United States. We advocate and work towards change and concrete action in our education system and adjacent systems such child welfare and the justice system.”

The launch of this vital document is a culmination of all the advocacy and activist work that PoBC has been extensively involved in. It serves to remind members of the Black community that there are resources, tools and supports available to ensure that Black children are able to thrive academically, excel mentally and flourish intellectually in spaces that may not be welcoming to their presence.

The document states that the navigate guide is “Geared towards families in Ontario, but the information can be applied to any jurisdiction where there are Black children and families.”

The document “Table of Contents” is useful and helpful. There is vital information on:

  • School board terms you need to know
  • Education organization you need to know in Ontario
  • Black families and the Child Welfare System
  • Black families and the education system
  • Black students and Individual Education Plans (IEPs)
  • Black students in High School.
  • Developmental delays in learning exceptionalities
  • Supporting students with learning exceptionalities
  • Selecting a school system
  • System abuse

PoBC presented a webinar on “System Abuse”. The document states,

“The system is not neutral. These systems were designed as part of a colonial framework that must be dismantled.” Furthermore, the document “Serves as a means to demystify the pitfalls within the education system and light a path towards a decolonized education system.”

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Youth Development

Toronto prepares families for COVID-19 vaccination of children

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Photo by Charles Deluvio Library on Unsplash

BY PAUL JUNOR

There have been concerns, fears and anxieties as parents, caregivers and guardians anticipate the possibility of having their children under twelve vaccinated.

The Boston Globe reported on Friday, October 29th, 2021, that the FDA approved the administration of Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine to children between the ages of five to eleven. These children will receive one-third of the dose administered to teens and adults.

The Centres for Disease Control and Prevention met on Tuesday, November 2nd, 2021, in order to finalize details with respect to which children should be vaccinated first. In anticipation of these developments, Team Toronto has initiated a series of outreach and education sessions, as well as town halls in order to inform the Toronto community.

Parents of children between the ages of five to eleven who attend public schools will be receiving an email and an invitation to respond to a survey to “Support vaccine planning.”  This invitation will also be extended to parents whose children attend private independent schools as well. The survey will be administered by Toronto Public Health (TPH) and the City of Toronto VaxTO in order to “Better understand parents’ intent to vaccinate their children, how they would prefer to have their children receive their COVID-19 vaccine, and to obtain critical information on socio-demographic factors such as race and income.”

John Tory, Mayor of Toronto, is optimistic and positive about this development. He states in the press release, “While our work to get 90% of eligible residents vaccinated is continuing, we are also readying for when the vaccine will be available to protect kids five to eleven. We want to hear from parents, so we made sure we designed a vaccination program that works for kids and their families. This is just one more example of the outreach we are doing to prepare for this effort. This work is so important and will help us get kids vaccinated so they have the best protection against COVID-19 and so our schools can be as safe and as open as possible.”

Councillor Joe Cressy, Chair of Toronto’s Board of Health who has been at the forefront of advocating for the vaccination of margnizalied and at-risk communities is supportive of this campaign. He states, “At every stage of our immunization campaign, connecting with people on the ground has been critical to our success. Now, as we prepare for the rollout of vaccines to children aged five to eleven, we’re committed to engaging directly with parents, families, and community leaders to have active conversations about vaccinations for kids.”

In addition, Dr Eileen De Villa, Toronto’s Medical Officer of Health is a strong proponent of this campaign. She states,” When vaccines are approved for use and when we have supply we will ensure that we bring every resource to bear on this critical component of the vaccination campaign.”

The survey will be available as of Sunday, November 7th, 2021. It consists of fifteen questions that will be available online at s.tphsurvey.chkmkt.com in multiple languages. Parents and guardians will receive them from their children’s public school boards. In addition, there will be town halls for specified multilingual communities as well as neighbourhood-based telephone halls to ensure that the public has access to timely, necessary and relevant information for informed decision-making.

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Youth Development

Act as if what you do makes a difference. IT DOES

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BY SABRINA S. – 12 YEARS OLD

The school year is coming to an end, I’m sure that this year was hectic for everyone. Last year, we had a pandemic strike in the middle of the year and the world was sent into lockdown.

We didn’t get to go to school for the rest of the year.

Many students got to choose if they wanted to do school in-person or online, I chose online since I didn’t feel safe.

First day of school was very weird, most people don’t turn their cameras on, don’t even get me started on the wifi issues. I would lag out of the google meet many times and miss most of the instructions on the assignment. That is when friends come in handy, though I don’t get to see my friends that often, we still connect with some online games and phone calls through snap chat.

I don’t know where the time went, it just flew by. Last month was September and suddenly, I feel like we skipped eight months. I only have a week of school left! Because it is the last week of school, I have a lot of homework and final assignments to do but I know I’ll get through them and finish the school year.

I haven’t had time to go outside as well, I’ve been too busy with my assignments.

If my school year was this hectic, imagine the teacher’s year. I’m very grateful for everything my teachers have done for me and my classmates this year, they definitely deserve the three-month summer break. I’m sure my teachers doubted teaching online, but everything went okay and I learned lots.

“No matter how hard it is, or how hard it gets. I’m going to make it!”

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