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Is the real estate market over the hill?

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BY JAY BRIJPAUL

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) reported that they are signs of an overheated real estate market.  Dana Senagama, Senior Specialist for market insights for CMHC said “While the pandemic has impacted lower wage paying sectors and the rental market, homeownership demand has continued to grow and defy expectations. With evidence of price acceleration and excess inventories detected simultaneously, our overall assessment moved from a moderate to a high degree of vulnerability.”

In March of this year, there were 15,652 homes sold, almost double the number of homes sold in March 2020. New listings also rose to a record-breaking 57%, year-over-year but could not keep up with the demands. The average selling price in GTA went up by 21.6% to a new high of $1,097,565.

Tiff Macklem, Bank of Canada Governor, mentioned that people may be purchasing homes solely because they believe prices may go up. What we get worried about is when we start to see extrapolated expectations, when we start to see people expecting the kind of unsustainable price increases, weve seen recently go on indefinitely,” said Tiff Macklem.

Home prices are surging in the suburbs as well. With the pandemic, more people can work from home and choose to relocate to smaller cities where they can enjoy more space for a cheaper price. Interest rates are on the rise and many buyers who locked in a lower rate are in a rush to find a home.

Benjamin Tal, who works for CIBC capital markets, said that If you think that Toronto is unaffordable now, you wait.” He said that Toronto is becoming like Berlin, like London, like Manhattan. Its becoming more and more unaffordable, and therefore we know that our kids will struggle.” Robert Hogue, a senior economist at Royal bank, echoed the same sentiment Large population in immigration and solid labour markets had housing demand running hotter than supply in many parts of Canada before the pandemic. The pandemic cranked up the heat.” He explained that Sky-high property values can exacerbate inequality, widening the divide between haves and have-not.”

I noticed that when there was a lockdown, home prices surged. The reason is that many sellers avoided putting their home up for sale during the lockdowns. This created an artificial shortage and resulted in multiple offers. With multiple offers, the highest bidder often wins, and this results in rapid price growth.

With rapid price growth, buyers are taking on larger mortgages. Canada’s mortgage debt escalated to about $1.65 trillion in the last quarter of 2020 and continued to climb in the first quarter of 2021. If the market changes direction, lenders will be caught in situations where the mortgage on a home is higher than the value of that property. This can lead to a financial meltdown. Will Dunning, chief economist at Mortgage Professionals Canada (MPC), explained that record low interest rate and a strong desire for homeownership is the driving force. When it comes to an increase in interest rates, Mr. Dunning said that “The employment situation is much more important than mortgage interest rates. This is because a problem with increased mortgage costs can usually be solved if the borrower has a steady income.”  According to The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Canada’s unemployment level is one of the highest among the G7 nations.

Policy makers are looking at ways to cool the market. One idea is to impose capital gains tax on the sale of principal residence. I don’t consider this as a way to cool the housing market. The actual problem is lack of housing. I do feel that speculators should be taxed heavily, thereby discouraging them from flipping properties for a quick profit which stimulates price growth. By taxing speculators heavily, more properties will be available for buyers to choose and this will cool the overheated market.

Christopher Alexander, Chief Strategy Officer at RE/MAX of Ontario-Atlantic Canada, said that we can cool the housing problem with the following ideas:

  1. A mandate to make all offers conditional upon obtaining financing. This will reduce buyer remorse and ensure that buyers can afford the purchase.
  2. Implement an industry “watchdog” to review transactions where homes are sold well above their asking price. The idea is to ensure fair listing prices (and not prices below market value to create bidding frenzies). Realtors who disobey this rule would face fines.
  3. Build more homes. This is the best solution to the housing crisis. This can be done by incentivize more development of affordable housing. “Realistically, we cant continue to fight urban sprawl while simultaneously expecting housing prices to cool. Its not feasible. What were seeing in the market right now is simple economics – low supply and high demand. We need more homes to meet Canadian’scurrent needs, while anticipating the housing needs of the 1.2 million people who are expected to immigrate to Canada through 2023.” said Christopher Alexander. “Maybe now is the time to consider expanding the boundaries of our developable land.”

This pandemic is new to us and so are the problems created by it. The best strategy is to be safe. With the surge in home prices, many homeowners are splurging on the increased equity. When the tide changes, if they are not careful, they will be marooned.

Jay Brijpaul is a 29 year Toronto Real Estate veteran and one of Canada’s top Real Estate Brokers. He has been involved in over 3000 Real Estate sales representing both buyers and sellers. His team, The Brij Team, is consistently among the top RE/MAX residential teams in Canada and around the world. Since 1994, Jay became a member of the Fellows of Real Estate Institute of Canada (FRI), giving him an additional 5 years of Real Estate training beyond what virtually all Real Estate agents have.

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Real Estate

Some tax saving strategies in real estate

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BY JAY BRIJPAUL

Properties were taxed temporarily to raise cash during the war. Today, real estate taxes are one of the government’s most significant revenue sources. There are many tax-saving strategies in real estate; let’s look at a few.

Buy RRSP’s. Many first-time buyers have their downpayment in a saving account or short-term deposit. It’s better to open a self-directed RRSP account. If you were contributing yearly, then you can top it up. If you still need to, you will have room to transfer a large sum which will trigger a tax refund. A first-time buyer can take up to $35,000 (or $70,000 as a couple) from their RRSP. The funds must be in the RRSP account for 90 days. The buyers must withdraw the funds within 30 days before closing the deal.

Build a basement apartment. Income from a basement apartment is taxable. Similarly, the operating expense is deductible. However, having a basement apartment on a principal residence property can change the use and limit your principal residence exemption. CRA has three criteria to determine that the use has not changed:

  • The rental use of the property is secondary to the principal residence
  • There are no structural changes done for income generation
  • There is no capital tax deduction on the secondary suite (You cannot write off the cost to build the suite)

If one or any of these criteria are not met, then, upon sale, the secondary suite portion of the property will be taxable. You can only claim some expenses if you rent a part of the property. If the basement apartment is 1/3 the size of the property, you can claim 1/3 of the utilities, mortgage interest, property taxes, insurance, etc.

Buy a rental property. Let’s assume that you have $100,000 saved up as a downpayment to buy an investment property and that your principal residence has a remaining mortgage of $400,000. It’s better to use the $100,000 to pay down your principal residence’s mortgage and then borrow $100,000 from the property for investment. You must set up a Home Equity Line Of Credit (HELOC) on the principal residence to borrow. The interest paid on the HELOC is tax deductible. With an investment property, an investor can write off the interest on the mortgage, rental insurance, some legal costs to purchase the property, property taxes, and other related expenses.

Split your rental income. If you are in a high tax bracket, consider splitting your rental income with your spouse or adult child. The party with the lower income must be actively involved in the day-to-day activities of the rental property. Some duties include bookkeeping, communicating with tenants, and collecting and depositing rent.

Claiming an expense on a rental property. There are two types of expenses, and they are called operating and capital expenses. Operating expenses are expenses incurred in the day-to-day operation such as accounting fees, maintenance, minor repairs, management fees, etc. Capital expenses are called capital improvements. For example, when you install a new roof. You can claim Capital Cost Allowance (CCA) and deduct the cost over time.

Claiming a rental loss for the property. When the gross rental income is lower than the rental expense for the year, that is known as a rental loss. You cannot claim rental loss when you rent the property to a family or friend below fair market rent. If a tenant has been living in the property for a long time and the rent is lower than reasonable market rent, that loss can be considered a rental loss. Rental losses that originated from a tenant who failed to pay rent are also tax deductible.

There are many more tax-saving ventures available. The government of Canada website, www.canada.ca, is resourceful. You cannot claim your labor and services in real estate, and it is better to use the services of a professional. I recommend finding an accountant who specializes in real estate taxation. The accountant’s fees are tax deductible.

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Real Estate

Downsizing is becoming a trend

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BY JAY BRIJPAUL

Recently I visited a client who sold her 2,600 square foot home in Etobicoke and bought a one-bedroom condo. I asked her how she felt about such a drastic move. She said that now, she can enjoy an affluent lifestyle. I pried further.

“When living in my Etobicoke house, I would have hotdogs for dinner. Now, I can have a steak instead. I was house-rich and cash-poor then, and today I am house-poor and cash rich.”

Downsizing is becoming a trend with all age groups. A bigger home will cost more for mortgages, property taxes, insurance, and maintenance. A smaller home will bring less financial stress, less care, less housework, and more time to relax. Some families choose to downsize so that they can spend more time with their loved ones instead of beating the streets to pay the bills. Usually, homeowners who reduce appear happier since they also downsized their financial load.

Doreen had a resort-style home with a large in-ground pool, sauna, and built-in BBQ. It was a hot spot for friends and families. There was only one problem—when the guests and family members left, she alone had to clean up and cover the bills. Now moved, her small dwelling brings her happiness and money too.

Many of us are worried about what others will say if we downsize. The size of our home gives us a sense of prestige. The best way to overcome this is to list the advantages and disadvantages of scaling down.

Moving to a smaller home is stressful. Families with children used to having bedrooms and adequate washrooms will need help to adjust. Have an open and honest discussion with family members. For financial reasons, consider converting the basement into a rental unit.

Upsizing is easier than downsizing. We love to move up to bigger and better. It’s exciting because, with the new home, we want more oversized furniture. Before downsizing, look at the kinds of homes you want to move to before selling your home. Don’t search for a home based on the size of your furniture, or you will be disappointed. This exercise can give you an idea of what to expect.

The next step is to sort through your belongings and decide what you will take to your new residence. You may need to get rid of oversized furniture. It’s an excellent time to sort clothing, books, and everything else. Group the items in three categories: keep, not sure, and good riddance. Dispose of the ones in the good riddance category. These can be sold at a discount or given as a donation. Social media such as Facebook marketplace is helpful.

Now, look at the second category. Sort the items into two sets: keep and good riddance. A rule of thumb is that if you do not use an item for a year, chances are you will not need it. Avoid the temptation of renting storage space to store items that you may not use for a while. Storage can be costly.

Should you sell first and then buy or do the opposite? In a market where prices are climbing, buying first and selling later is better. In a market where prices are coming down, it’s best to sell first and buy later. A good realtor can guide you through the process. A decluttered, cleaned, and staged home will be more appealing to prospective buyers. Avoid pumping money into significant upgrades. A fresh coat of paint can add thousands of dollars to your pocket.

It is advisable to take possession of the home you are moving to a week earlier than the one you are selling. You can do so through bridge financing, where the lender will facilitate the request. This way, you have a week to do minor repairs, cleaning, and moving.

If you are selling to free up retirement cash, consult a financial planner to invest the proceeds. There are situations where a family needs the space but cannot afford the home. Instead of downsizing, consider moving to smaller towns, and you will pay less for a bigger house.

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Real Estate

Real estate forecast

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BY JAY BRIJPAUL

Picture a stream. You can stop the flow by building a dam. The stream before the dam will swell while the other side will fall. As the swell continues, the dam will collapse under pressure. The resulting flow will be turbulent.  Rising interest rates are like a dam that inhibits the natural flow of buyers into the marketplace. It’s an artificial solution to a bigger problem. When interest rates decrease, the dam will crack, and the market will explode. The answer is to boost immigration.

Between 2023 to 2025, the Canadian government plans to welcome half a million permanent residents. As a result, we need to build more homes. To keep up with the demand, we have to add approximately 200,000 new homes in 2023 and 2024.  Currently, there are around 100,000 new homes being built across Canada yearly. The swell is growing rapidly.

The GTA is a city of ethnic diversity. Many immigrants want to live there, but the infrastructures are not in place to handle the influx. We cannot build enough accommodations to offset the flow. As a result, house prices will continue to surge.

Increased immigration is not the only reason for the drastic climb in house prices. Policies such as exclusionary zoning, heritage designations and high development charges slows growth. When other factors such as supply chain issues and lack of skilled labour, are added, housing becomes expensive.

Usually about 10% of the current resale home stock is from senior citizens. Seniors are choosing to stay at home instead of selling and moving to retirement residence. Many seniors are taking reverse mortgages, where they can live at home and withdraw equity to supplement their income. This trend creates more shortages and as a result there is upward pressure on housing.

Jason Mercer, chief market analyst for The Toronto and Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) said, “It would be a year of two halves in 2023. The first half will feel similar to the fall of 2022 due to lingering effects of higher borrowing costs and related economic uncertainty. However, recent polling by Ipsos suggests buying intentions are edging up. The second half of 2023 should be characterized by an increase in demand for ownership housing supported by the lower mortgage rates, a relative resilient labour market, and record immigration.”

It is estimated that over the past year, one of every three homes sold in the GTA are bought by investors. This trend will continue because investors are benefitting from high rent and surging prices. As a result, the stock available for other buyers are depleted. Lack of adequate supply will cause prices to increase which in turn benefit investors and homeowners.

Bidding wars are resurging, and affordable homes are selling above market value. Buyers have a strong appetite for resale homes that are renovated. Homes with rental potential are more desirable. When there are multiple offers, sellers will choose a firm offer with strong deposits. Buyers should do their due diligence, such as obtaining a pre-approval before purchase.

There are buying opportunities available. Look for homes that are sitting on the market for over a month. You can negotiate the price down. Always make your offer subject to obtaining appropriate financing and inspection. When buying a home, first choose the location, then the type and style of home and finally the upgrades.

I represented some buyers who had two homes to choose from. One was a semi-detached, 5 days on the market and nicely upgraded. The other was a fully detached that had less upgrades and was on the market for 35 days. They were both priced at $799,000. The semi-detached had 10 offers and sold for $900,000. My clients bought the detached for $750,000. With some upgrades over time, they are ahead because they bought a detached home for far less than that semi-detached sold for.

If you are buying a home, it is better to buy in the first half of 2023. Go short term on interest rates. Once the rates drop, you can lock it in. If you are planning on selling your home, then re-evaluate the reasons you want to sell. Instead of disposing of your current home to buy another, it is better to refinance it and use the equity as the downpayment on the other one. You can then collect rent from one of the homes.

Homes in the GTA are becoming increasingly expensive. Over the long term, it’s a great investment. Prices will continue to climb. Own as much real estate as possible. It’s better than mutual funds and the good thing is, you can live in it or collect rent from it. It’s a win-win.

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